Wednesday, November 12, 2008

Does Erin Burnett Cause Bull Markets?


CNBC just had Justin Walters from Bespoke on, and he looked at the cummulative returns of buying the market during each hour of the day.

I'm not sure I totally followed the methodology, but best I can tell, they looked at hourly returns over the past month. In other words, how the market did between 11AM and 12PM, how it did between 12 PM and 1PM, and so on.

And found the only positive return was in the 2PM to 3PM hour. Erin Burnett Time!

Not only that, they looked back 3 month's and 6 month's, and found the same thing.

Now before we start front-running her guesting on Power Lunch or something, I would note that the first hour of the day is the worst performer. And last I checked, she hosts a show then too. So unless we can control for the Mark Haines variable, I am going to have to conclude it's not actually Erin.

In fact, if you're a Minyanville sub, you probably knew about the 2-3PM phenomenon long ago. It's Contra Hour, the time of day when we tend to get a counter trend move. And in a market that always goes down, it looks like that countertrend move was up more often than not.
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