Just heard on TV that if you invested for the past year and were in the market every day other than the 10 worst days of the year, you would be up 4%. As opposed to down 40%.
So in other words, if you are in here scratching and clawing and trading every day and are proud you are over the flat line, fuggetaboutit. You wasted your time. Have someone else manage your account with the sole instruction of being fully invested for all but the 10 worst days of the year.
As a corollary, I wonder how I would do if I could just ex-out my ten worst personal days of any given year. Or better yet, ex-out my worst trade each day. Would probably crush them, particularly since I would then take shots.
Yes, this is an utterly pointless discussion.
Anyway, Mister X has an interesting comment below. Does the fact that the VIX sits significantly above it's November future indicate the market expects a rally.
My answer is that in a vacuum yes, it should meet equilibrium somewhere. The futures market implies a 50/50 bet that the VIX is over 55 on November expiration. So either that will rise, or volatility will fall. And if volatility falls, then presumably the market lifts (though not definitely).
Problem is, we're not in a vacuum, we're in Armageddon. The VIX classically "mean reverts". But the problem is, that's a misleading concept as that "mean" is a moving target. Translation is that you would have gone broke if you went long every time the VIX went "x" above the near month future. One time it will in fact "revert", and this may be that time for all I know, just that it's a tough bet to make after what we've seen.
