No matter how many times we see THE REACTION to A NUMBER (like today's oil inventories) is more important than the actual number, CNBC will still get flummoxed any time the market does not behave as expected.Here is a good rule on these Inventory days that I should staple to my screen. The move before the 10:30 oil number is the *correct* one. The move on the number is a blip within the early move ripe for fading.
Anyway, long time no check on these Bullish Percent PnF charts Kevin Depew tracks on Minyanville.
Just to refresh, he hits up the percent of stocks above their 50 Day MA in a given index and pops it into a PnF chart. It's not a timing tool, more of a big picture look at internal strength.
Right here right now, all 5 indices he looks at, the NYSE, Russell, Nazz, Nazz Composite and S&P are bullish, as are the NYSE and Nazz High-Low Indices.
The S&P shown here, and the Nazz 100 are in correction mode, but still bullish, the others all remain in X'x.
As far as "field position", everything is pretty mediocre. The Nazz Composite sits at 33%, but everything else resides near 50%.
Originally this all kind of looked like 2002 redux. Big washout that summer, followed by internal improvement that never really translated to anything in the market until spring of 2003. For it to follow 2002 though, we need a big selloff in the next few month's down near the Jan. and March lows, coupled with higher lows in the PnF.
6 comments:
There's been a pretty large divergence in the past few months between the DJX and the NDX, worth noting. From a technical perspective, the DJX put up a perfect double-top and then caved below its swing-low. It still looks completely bearish. On the other hand, the NDX has raged higher since the March lows, in a perfect up-trend of higher highs and lows. This was undoubtedly carried by Apple, and the news that Steve Jobs is not in fact getting fired from BIDU, GRMN, and DRYS. So it's kind of difficult to make a case for either side, when the other index is doing the opposite.
yeah, zactly. The Horsemen kind of skewing it also as you say, but the nazz much better technically. I think I read somewhere even in Oil May, tech has outdone energy by a smidge.
huh, CNBC is confusing the public? that cant be..
talk about a blowoff top in oil today..even CNBC (Criminal Narrators Boosting Crude) couldnt keep it up..
i took a nice position in the airlines, specifically AMR and is up roughly 7% since the BS inventory report...should have loaded up the boat with some calls..but lets face it that stock IS a call option lol
..by the way why has there been no mention from Cramer of his bullish Gold call from a week or so ago..maybe cuz its down a cool 50 smackers..now thats Mad Money..lol
forgot about that gold call. Truly follows the same pattern over and over again. Declares a bottom in hindsight 10% after the fact, right at the top. And the best part is he's not actually wrong yet.
lol yes...those poor Cramericans.
it's really insidious, like a game to create illusions of being correct.
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