Not a whole lot of jawboning regarding the Subway Series this year. Pretty much our whiny, sleepy overpriced underachievers vs. yours. Someone will win 2 of 3, sports talk radio will blabber about how much it all means, and then move on.I should rent this Embrace of The Vampire instead.
But hey, guess what, there is an arb involving both the Mets and Yankees.
Sell both on Tradesports to win their respective divisions.
OK, not recommending that, but each trades a bit above their theoretical values as per the numbers crunched at Baseball Prospectus.
BP runs 3 prediction models that play out the regular season a million hypothetical times and spit back the odds of each team winning their respective divisions and/or making the Wild Card. The best model imho is this ELO system.
Anyway, the results are here, and it gives the Mets and Yankees each about an 18% chance of winning their respective divisions. Pretty far off the markets as the Mets "trade" for about 48, while the Yankees change hands at about 24.
OK, guess the Mets are the bigger short, lol. Their price matches BP's Pecota odds, which simply base predicitons of the expected performance for each player going into the season. If the Mets were an option, they would be one of the long-dated variety that assumes some sort of mean-reversion upwards.
I am not quite as optimistic.
6 comments:
Here in Chicago, everyone in long the Cubs...but 100 years since a pennant means the Cubs theta has so many zeros after it people have stopped counting.
UGH! What do I do to hedge the Tigers?!
yeah, the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees are always overbid on this sort of thing, although Cubs actually are right in line right now according to BP's numbers.
Mets just silly high,
I'd put a hold on the Tigers, they are fair here too.
WTF, I'm a buyer, they have to be be bottoming here.
yeah, the Cubs, Red Sox and Yankees are always overbid on this sort of thing, although Cubs actually are right in line right now according to BP's numbers.
Mets just silly high,
I'd put a hold on the Tigers, they are fair here too.
WTF, I'm a buyer, they have to be be bottoming here.
I'M SHORT THE FOLLOWING
RANDOLPH
DELGADO
ALOU
BELTARN
REYES
would Wally B. be a bad manager? i think not-starting to worry, kind of like where the VIX is
good game today for a change. Even Delgado gets a nice 2-out hit in the 8th.
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