Tuesday, January 22, 2008
Start Choppin'
Well we certainly got that VIX spike this morning.
So let us clarify.
I think it's OK to buy actual options into a move like that. Provided they are ATM or near money AND near month. I don't want to commit to paying up for volatility with too much time; the move is here and now.
I only bought gamma in 2 spots so far, one moved alot (AAPL), one not so much (AMZN). Both have earnings due, which is good in that you know volatility won't cave today in your face, but bad because there is some premium that could collapse if it's a non-event.
I flipped a little stock in spots where I could, but have traded pretty flat.
I don't play VIX products, but that wouldn't be my vehicle of choice here even if I did. My thought was/is that stocks were going to move, NOT that option volatility itself is going to reset higher after this plays out.
Here's an extreme example to illustrate this.
Let's say you buy XYZ Feb. 100 straddles at a 90 volatility. The stock is trading near 100 when you do it, so it's delta neutral.
Let's say the stock bounces all around, then goes up to like 120. And then volatility caves to a 60.
Was it a bad play?
Probably not. You likely paid for your options, and then some.
That's my point, buying actual options has two components that determine how well that purchase worked. What did the options volatility do, and what did the stock volatility do. If the latter exploded, it more than offset the former.
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12 comments:
Now Im confused. I have no idea what to expect. That gap fill was easier than I thought. Dont know if that is good or bad.
i guess the right play is short into it with a stop above.
Easy for me to say that now that we've sold down from it, lol.
There is still going to be a gut check later today. No way the bulls get off this easy.
yeah, agreed. It does seem a little bearish we fill the gap fairly quickly and then just sit and drift. At this point it was one early trade and back to the same old same old of the last month.
Right. Im once again staring at stocks that just went dead.
Adam... you HAVE to embed this...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=izArWUVtMC4
definitely going to use that, thanks.
Wow, this is just terrific. Now this thing cant go anywhere. The government is just making things worse
I bet Lenny is minting coin today.
I half expected President Bush to announce a stimulus package consisting of Lenny sending us all a check.
Go, AAPL, go!
kind of pathetic, the Fed. I mean they sit and sit and teh only thing that gets them into action is a stock market selloff. Which would have run it's course, I mean it's likely the capitulation was here.Now? I'm less convinced.
MD: I love that idea, lmao. And Go Apple!
In a sea of disgusting cdo's, swaps, ibanks, hf;s at least apple does something that makes everyone smile.
until they report guidance. Ouch.
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