Wednesday, November 02, 2005

It's official, We're overbought

At least according to ye olde 10% below the SMA Rule. And only as far as the VIX and VXO are concerned.

For those not familiar, the volatility indices signal an overbought (or oversold) reading when they deviate 10% away from their 10 Day Simple Moving Average. It's a very short-term indicator that has a reasonable success rate, i'd guess maybe 3 out 5 times. It all depends on time horizons though, as i'd say it signals more of a pause then a trend change.

The ISEE index is flashing a moderately bearish 181 right now, while the CBOE put/call is on the low side at .66. So taking all these with a grain of salt, options are saying this bull move is a little extended here.

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